Hindsight Bias: “If only I had…”

Reflecting in events of our past can sometimes lead us towards what is known as a 'hindsight bias'. This is defined as “a tendency to believe that negative outcomes should have been predictable.”

This was even more evident throughout 2020 with the #COVID19 crisis, especially on criticisms against what so-and-so should have done “to prevent” something. Like how, my plane ticket to Miri was ironically scheduled to be on the same day that travel restrictions and quarantine requirements were imposed 😅.

Because of incidents such as these, many conversations tend to gear towards these “shoulda, woulda, coulda” wishful thinking statements or hypothetical conversations, blaming other parties, sometimes even themselves reminiscing how things would have been “different”. These expressions usually come in the vein of: “if only I had done (insert regretful action here), then surely, (insert speculative outcome here)” or "I should have.."
In Malay, these statements typically begin with “patutnya”, “kalau tahu..”

Statements and thoughts like these are actually forbidden, as they go against the teachings of the Islamic Aqidah of Tawhid and Iman in Qadar, and are in fact doorways to satanic thoughts. Prophet Muhammad ﷺ said:

وَإِنْ أَصَابَكَ شَيْءٌ فَلَا تَقُلْ: لَوْ أَنِّي فَعَلْتُ كَانَ كَذَا وَكَذَا, وَلَكِنْ قُلْ: قَدَّرَ اَللَّهُ وَمَا شَاءَ فَعَلَ; فَإِنَّ لَوْ تَفْتَحُ عَمَلَ اَلشَّيْطَانِ
“If something were to afflict you, do not say, ‘If only I had done this, such and such would have occurred’, but instead, say, QaddarAllahu wa masha a fa’al (meaning, ‘this is the decree of Allāh and whatever He wills He does,’)
Because the statement of “if only” unlocks the work of Shaitan” (Narrated by Muslim)

Whatever happened, has happened, and can never be rectified. Dwelling on wishful thinking about “if onlys...” only result in a destructive cycle of regret and unresolvable shame and blame which can spiral out of control. Dwelling on “if only..” isn’t solution-focused – because there is no turning back!

وَاعْلَمْ أَنَّ مَا أَخْطَأَك لَمْ يَكُنْ لِيُصِيبَك، وَمَا أَصَابَك لَمْ يَكُنْ لِيُخْطِئَك، وَاعْلَمْ أَنَّ النَّصْرَ مَعَ الصَّبْرِ، وَأَنْ الْفَرَجَ مَعَ الْكَرْبِ، وَأَنَّ مَعَ الْعُسْرِ يُسْرًا
“And know, that what has passed you by [and you have failed to attain] was not going to befall you, and what has befallen you was not going to pass you by.
And know that victory comes with patience, relief with affliction, and hardship with ease.” (Narrated by Ahmad)

So, how do these statements open the door to shaytan?

When we get into “if only..” conversations, this often triggers a string of conversations about completely hypothetical situations how things “could have been better” based on our own judgment, which in turn, makes us question the wisdom of the Qadar (destiny) of Allah: satanic thoughts that, in left unchecked, can make one feel that he knows BETTER than Allah 😱.

The reality is every single thing that Allah has decreed has a wisdom and greater good behind them, sometimes far beyond our limited minds can comprehend. At the very least, the challenges and negative consequences of our decisions can sometimes be very valuable life lessons to shape us into becoming better persons.

And that is why Allah reminded us, that “..perhaps, you may hate something, when it is in fact good for you, and perhaps you may love something, but it is in fact bad for you. Allah KNOWS but you do not know” (Surah Al-Baqarah 2:216)

What IS productive, however, is using these past experiences as lessons learned, to channel them into making better decisions should similar obstacles reoccur in the future, all without dwelling on “what-ifs” of the past. This continuous improvement mindset is the essence of hikmah (wisdom) that believers should have, as the Prophet ﷺ said,

لاَ يُلْدَغُ الْمُؤْمِنُ مِنْ جُحْرٍ وَاحِدٍ مَرَّتَيْنِ
"A believer is not stung from the same hole twice." (Al-Bukhari)

The hadith forbidding us from making “what if” statement is essentially teaching us is to try our level best to make the decisions based on what we know, OWN UP to our decisions, and take responsibility for the choices that we make, have no regrets and keep moving forward: these are the characteristics of a STRONG BELIEVER, which is actually the beginning of the hadith, wherein the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ said:

اَلْمُؤْمِنُ اَلْقَوِيُّ خَيْرٌ وَأَحَبُّ إِلَى اَللَّهِ مِنْ اَلْمُؤْمِنِ اَلضَّعِيفِ, وَفِي كُلٍّ خَيْرٌ, اِحْرِصْ عَلَى مَا يَنْفَعُكَ, وَاسْتَعِنْ بِاَللَّهِ, وَلَا تَعْجَزْ
“The strong believer is better and more beloved to Allah than the weak believer; and in both there is goodness.
Strive for what will benefit you, seek assistance from Allah and do not give up.” (Muslim)

Finally, Allah says in the Qur’an:
فَإِذَا عَزَمْتَ فَتَوَكَّلْ عَلَى اللَّـهِ ۚ إِنَّ اللَّـهَ يُحِبُّ الْمُتَوَكِّلِينَ
“Then when you have taken a decision, put your trust in Allah, certainly, Allah loves those who put their trust (in Him).” (Surah Ali Imran, 3:159)

The Prophet ﷺ describes that with patience, comes victory, relief and ease. Do not allow our life’s challenges or circumstances to make us lose hope. Instead, keep having optimistic thoughts about Allah to provide a way out for those who have patience and trust in Him. In a hadith Qudsi, Allah says:

أَنَا عِنْدَ ظَنِّ عَبْدِي بِي وَأَنَا مَعَهُ إِذَا دَعَانِي
“I am as My slave thinks of Me; and I am with him as he calls upon Me” (Al-Bukhari, Muslim)

And Allah Knows best.

#TheBarakahEffect #Qadr #IfOnly